External validation of a prediction model for successful external cephalic version.

نویسندگان

  • Marcella De Hundt
  • Floortje Vlemmix
  • Marjolein Kok
  • Jan W Van Der Steeg
  • Joke M Bais
  • Ben W Mol
  • Joris A Van Der Post
چکیده

We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a successful ECV. We studied 320 women undergoing ECV, of which 117 (37%) were successful. The model underestimated the success rate by 4 to 14%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was moderate (0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.72), but the model was able to make good distinction between women with a higher predicted probability of a successful ECV (more than 50%) compared with women with a lower predicted probability of a successful ECV (less than 20%). Our model to predict the outcome of ECV holds in external validation. It can be used to support patient counseling and decision making for ECV in singleton term breech presentations.

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عنوان ژورنال:
  • American journal of perinatology

دوره 29 3  شماره 

صفحات  -

تاریخ انتشار 2012